Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.362012 0.420852 0.484715 0.558989 0.642794 0.734221 0.841301
2025-05-11 0.281677 0.358834 0.449048 0.561597 0.697461 0.855352 1.051839
2025-05-18 0.209216 0.291936 0.395984 0.534825 0.713380 0.933269 1.222255
2025-05-25 0.152731 0.234126 0.344407 0.501749 0.716943 0.997013 1.384387
2025-06-01 0.117890 0.198365 0.315602 0.493896 0.752186 1.105814 1.617995
2025-06-08 0.090202 0.167059 0.287568 0.482822 0.781941 1.211761 1.861849
2025-06-15 0.073964 0.150113 0.278049 0.497762 0.851751 1.382709 2.216771
2025-06-22 0.054803 0.123325 0.247618 0.475013 0.861607 1.468157 2.459069
2025-06-29 0.041637 0.103904 0.225698 0.462505 0.886052 1.578948 2.752368
2025-07-06 0.031252 0.086856 0.204331 0.447085 0.903446 1.680829 3.043347
2025-07-13 0.025643 0.078546 0.198218 0.458946 0.970403 1.871819 3.497599
2025-07-20 0.020156 0.068573 0.186331 0.457404 1.012825 2.026002 3.906436
2025-07-27 0.016121 0.061119 0.178888 0.465196 1.077307 2.231555 4.433166
2025-08-03 0.012766 0.054156 0.170861 0.470446 1.138215 2.438551 4.984732
2025-08-10 0.009160 0.044461 0.153077 0.449851 1.143210 2.542581 5.363104
2025-08-17 0.006327 0.035617 0.134577 0.423225 1.131028 2.612383 5.686159
2025-08-24 0.004739 0.030552 0.125334 0.417972 1.165874 2.779910 6.211388
2025-08-31 0.003481 0.025925 0.115761 0.409619 1.192356 2.933552 6.724576
2025-09-07 0.002841 0.023874 0.114204 0.423658 1.275301 3.215181 7.517500
2025-09-14 0.001959 0.019505 0.102445 0.404689 1.273040 3.312987 7.946598
2025-09-21 0.001398 0.016425 0.094224 0.394463 1.291613 3.458800 8.487906
2025-09-28 0.000970 0.013654 0.085889 0.381553 1.300829 3.584276 8.996946
2025-10-05 0.000776 0.012548 0.084562 0.392371 1.377430 3.873902 9.882126